Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s days in Congress may be numbered, according to a shocking new poll.

A survey by Data for Progress indicates that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) is ahead of Schumer by 19 points in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary contest. Although Schumer still retains his title as leader of his party in the upper chamber, his popularity among the party’s base appears to be rapidly declining.

Between March 26 and 31, 767 likely Democratic primary voters in New York were asked whom they would support in a hypothetical primary matchup between Schumer and Ocasio-Cortez. The results were striking: 55% backed Ocasio-Cortez, while only 36% chose Schumer.

The findings were not anomalies. The poll revealed that Schumer had the highest disapproval rating among all Democratic figures tested, whereas Ocasio-Cortez ranked among the most popular, trailing only Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Kamala Harris, and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA).

The decline comes at a politically perilous moment. Schumer recently joined Senate Republicans in supporting a spending bill negotiated with President Trump, drawing sharp criticism from progressives who argue that Democrats should take a more aggressive stance against the president’s mounting political influence.

A staggering 84% of respondents believe that Washington Democrats aren’t doing enough to stand up to Trump and the MAGA movement—a sentiment that serves as a full-blown alarm bell for establishment Democrats.

Support for Ocasio-Cortez spans virtually every major demographic group. She leads by 50 points among voters under 45 and by 8 points among those 45 and older, outperforming Schumer among white, Black, and Latino voters. She also outpaces him across both gender and education levels, with Schumer’s only advantage coming from self-identified moderates. Poll respondents were shown biographical summaries of both candidates.

Ocasio-Cortez’s favorability jumped from +59 to +69 after voters read about her background, 2018 primary victory, and policy positions. Schumer’s favorability also increased—from +26 to +47—but this boost wasn’t enough to change the head-to-head matchup. Even after voters were shown statements critical of both candidates, the numbers barely shifted. A message framing AOC as a polarizing, attention-seeking figure influenced only 14% of respondents.

Meanwhile, 33% of respondents found criticism of Schumer—as a career politician too intertwined with corporate interests and too willing to align with MAGA Republicans—“very concerning.” That encapsulates Schumer’s challenge. Despite his decades of service, seniority, and institutional clout, many Democratic voters now view him as part of the past, while they see Ocasio-Cortez as the face of the future.

Although it remains to be seen whether she will run, this poll suggests that if she does, the 2028 race might be decisively in her favor.

“This poll really does show that Democrats are united in just wanting to stand up, wanting to fight, wanting to see someone taking a stand for them,” said Danielle Deiseroth, executive director of Data for Progress.

Deiseroth said that her organization has a long-standing tradition of challenging the mainstream Democratic leadership and pushing against the party’s status quo. She cited a 2021 poll from her firm that identified then-Sen. Kyrsten Sinema as particularly vulnerable to a primary challenge.

Sinema eventually left the Democratic Party and became an Independent before choosing not to seek reelection.

Political analyst Mark Halperin said last week that if Ocasio-Cortez decides to challenge Schumer in the 2028 New York Senate primary, he believes Schumer would likely have to step aside.

“If she ran against him, I know exactly what she would say to try to beat him. It’s very hard for me to imagine how Schumer could come back because the way to try to beat her would be to go negative on her — ‘she’s inexperienced, she’s too left-wing.’ It seems to me that all that would backfire,” Halperin said.

“And so I think if she runs against him, he has to quit the race because I don’t think he can defend himself against her,” he added.