Democratic voting rights groups are sounding the alarm ahead of a Supreme Court case they fear could deliver a devastating blow to minority representation in Congress.
The high court is set to rehear Louisiana v. Callais on Oct. 15, a case that could reshape how race is used in drawing congressional districts — and potentially gut a key portion of the Voting Rights Act, one of the landmark civil rights laws of the 1960s, Politico reported.
At the center of the case is Section 2 of the act, which prohibits racial gerrymandering that dilutes the voting power of minority groups. Two organizations — Fair Fight Action and the Black Voters Matter Fund — released a new report warning that if the court eliminates Section 2, Republicans could redraw as many as 19 congressional seats to their advantage.
That shift, the report claims, could all but guarantee Republican control of the U.S. House.
LaTosha Brown, co-founder of Black Voters Matter Fund, said eliminating Section 2 would “clear the path for a one-party system where power serves the powerful and silences the people.”
According to the report, losing Section 2 could mean up to 30 percent of the Congressional Black Caucus and 11 percent of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus would be drawn out of their current districts.
Republicans have long argued that the Voting Rights Act — particularly Section 2 — gives Democrats a built-in advantage by forcing states to draw maps based on race rather than population or geography. GOP lawmakers and attorneys have pushed for years to limit the law’s reach, saying it’s outdated and has been misused for partisan gain.
The Supreme Court has repeatedly upheld Section 2, but voting rights advocates worry this time could be different. The current court, which has a 6–3 conservative majority, has shown a willingness to revisit long-standing precedents in other areas of law.
Fair Fight Action CEO Lauren Groh-Wargo said further weakening the Voting Rights Act would do “permanent damage.”
“The only way to stop it is to play offense — aggressively redraw maps wherever possible, focus relentlessly on taking back Congress, and be ready to use that power to pass real pro-democracy legislation and hold this corrupted Court accountable,” she said.
While a ruling in time for the next midterm elections is unlikely, election law experts say it’s not out of the question.
The report identified 27 total seats nationwide that could be redistricted to favor Republicans before the midterms — 19 of which depend on Section 2 being struck down.
Many of the states that would see the biggest impact are in the South, where the Voting Rights Act has historically had the strongest effect. Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee and Mississippi could see their remaining Democratic members of Congress drawn out of office. Louisiana, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas and Florida would likely retain at least one Democratic seat each, but their overall delegations would shrink.
The report’s release comes as Republicans have already begun redrawing maps in some states to strengthen their position before the next election cycle. Those efforts, while rare outside the normal redistricting window, have already yielded six new GOP-leaning seats across two states.
Analysts say the momentum could grow if the Supreme Court rules in favor of Louisiana officials and scales back or eliminates Section 2.
Democrats, meanwhile, are being urged to mount an “aggressive and immediate” response — both legally and politically — to counter Republican redistricting efforts already underway.
For now, both parties are watching the high court closely. A decision that weakens the Voting Rights Act could upend the balance of congressional power, alter the makeup of minority representation, and rewrite decades of precedent governing how America draws its political maps.
