Midwest Politics Report

The race for Minneapolis mayor remains too close to call after Tuesday’s election, as first-choice vote totals placed incumbent Mayor Jacob Frey ahead of State Senator Omar Fateh, but short of the majority needed to secure an outright victory under the city’s ranked-choice voting system.

Frey, seeking a third term, told supporters that he felt confident in the numbers but stopped short of declaring victory, noting that second- and third-choice ballots would still play a decisive role in the final outcome.

“We are well in the lead,” Frey said at his election night gathering downtown. “Minneapolis showed up once again with record turnout, and I’ll tell you what — it looks damn good for us. But we’ll wait until every vote is counted.”

A Tight Contest Under Ranked-Choice Voting

Minneapolis uses ranked-choice voting, a system that allows voters to rank candidates in order of preference. If no candidate wins a majority — at least 50% — after the first round, the lowest-performing candidates are eliminated one by one, and their voters’ next preferences are redistributed until someone crosses the threshold.

According to unofficial results from the Minnesota Secretary of State’s office, Frey received approximately 42% of first-choice votes, while Fateh followed with 32%. The remaining votes were split among a crowded field of 15 candidates, with pastor DeWayne Davis earning about 14% and attorney Jazz Hampton drawing roughly 10%.

With all precincts reporting, Frey maintains a ten-point lead, but the ranked-choice tabulations — set to continue through Wednesday — could dramatically shift the race depending on how supporters of lower-ranked candidates cast their secondary preferences.

Frey’s Confidence Tempered by Caution

At his watch party, Frey, who first took office in 2018, expressed gratitude for his supporters and optimism about continuing his administration’s agenda focused on housing, public safety reform, and economic recovery.

The incumbent has positioned himself as a centrist Democrat — one who has often clashed with more progressive voices within the city. His leadership was tested by the fallout from George Floyd’s killing in 2020, subsequent protests, and ongoing debates about the future of policing in Minneapolis.

“I’ve been proud to lead this city through some of its toughest moments,” Frey told reporters late Tuesday. “And tonight, I’m proud to see the people of Minneapolis stand behind steady leadership and progress.”

Frey’s campaign has emphasized affordable housing expansion, small business revitalization, and community-based safety initiatives that maintain, rather than dismantle, traditional policing.

Fateh’s Progressive Momentum

Meanwhile, State Sen. Omar Fateh, who represents south Minneapolis, told supporters to remain patient as ranked-choice counting continues. The 32-year-old legislator, a progressive Democrat, has drawn significant grassroots enthusiasm with a platform calling for rent stabilization, expanded public housing, free public transit, and a “care-based” approach to public safety.

“Tonight, we stay patient,” Fateh said at his campaign event in the city’s Seward neighborhood. “We stay proud because this campaign has already changed the conversation about what Minneapolis can be.”

Fateh, one of the city’s most prominent left-wing figures, originally secured the endorsement of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) earlier this year. However, the state party later withdrew its endorsement, citing concerns about the internal endorsement process. Despite the setback, Fateh continued to attract strong support from progressive groups, labor unions, and community organizers across the city.

“This race isn’t just about who wins,” Fateh added. “It’s about building a movement that says working people deserve a city that works for them — not just for the wealthy or well-connected.”

Other Candidates and Voter Turnout

Although the mayoral contest was largely seen as a two-way race between Frey and Fateh, several other candidates drew attention for highlighting specific community issues.

Rev. DeWayne Davis, senior pastor of All God’s Children Metropolitan Community Church, focused his campaign on housing insecurity and police accountability. His nearly 14% share of first-choice votes positions him as a potential kingmaker in the ranked-choice redistribution process — his supporters’ next-choice preferences could prove pivotal.

Similarly, attorney Jazz Hampton, who ran on a platform emphasizing innovation, business reform, and technology-driven policing alternatives, earned close to 10% of first-choice votes. His campaign attracted younger and tech-oriented voters who could also influence the outcome when ballots are re-tabulated.

Election officials reported record voter turnout, with participation surpassing levels seen in both 2021 and 2017 municipal elections — a sign of the city’s deep engagement with local politics after years of high-profile debate over crime, housing, and policing.

A City Divided on the Future of Public Safety

Both leading candidates share Democratic affiliations but diverge sharply on how to handle public safety and policing, issues that have dominated Minneapolis politics since 2020.

Frey supports reforms within the existing police department — increasing accountability measures while maintaining police staffing levels — whereas Fateh and his supporters have called for structural change, including shifting funding toward mental health responders and social services.

Political analysts say the results reflect a broader ideological divide within the DFL coalition that has long governed Minneapolis.

“This election shows a tension between pragmatism and idealism within the Democratic base,” said Dr. Eliza Martinez, a political science professor at the University of Minnesota. “Frey represents institutional stability, while Fateh channels grassroots energy and frustration from communities that feel left behind.”

What Happens Next

Election officials plan to begin counting second-choice votes on Wednesday, with full results expected within 48 hours. If neither Frey nor Fateh reaches the 50% threshold after redistribution, the process will move to third-choice tallies until one candidate emerges with a majority.

Given the closeness of the race and the significant share of votes held by Davis and Hampton, analysts say it’s still possible for Fateh to overtake Frey in later rounds — though Frey remains the statistical favorite.

“Ranked-choice voting introduces uncertainty,” said election analyst Michael Chan. “Even with a solid first-round lead, an incumbent can lose if most of the eliminated candidates’ supporters break toward the challenger.”

Both campaigns have pledged to respect the process and urged supporters to remain calm until the official tally is complete.

A Defining Moment for Minneapolis

No matter who ultimately wins, the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral race is being seen as a referendum on the city’s direction. For many residents, it represents a choice between incremental progress and transformational change — between Frey’s vision of pragmatic governance and Fateh’s call for systemic reform.

As the ballots are recounted and the ranked-choice process unfolds, one thing remains certain: Minneapolis voters have turned out in record numbers to shape the city’s future, signaling that civic engagement in the Twin Cities is alive and deeply energized.